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Break-Even Analyzer

Calculate the minimum win rate required to break even at different risk-reward ratios, accounting for spread and commission costs.

Each cell shows the expected value per trade, in R, for a win rate × reward:risk combination — after spread and commission, which every trade pays win or lose. Green = profitable edge, red = losing over time.

Currency Pair

1.1247loading live price…

Stop loss

pips

Lot Size

Spread (pips)

Commission/lot/side

USD

EV per trade (R) after costs — 0.095R per trade

Green = profitable · Red = losing

0.5R

0.75R

1.25R

1.5R

2.5R

30%

-0.64

-0.57

-0.49

-0.42

-0.34

-0.19

-0.04

+0.10

35%

-0.57

-0.48

-0.40

-0.31

-0.22

-0.05

+0.13

+0.30

40%

-0.49

-0.39

-0.29

-0.19

-0.09

+0.11

+0.31

+0.51

45%

-0.42

-0.31

-0.20

-0.08

+0.03

+0.26

+0.48

+0.71

50%

-0.34

-0.22

-0.10

+0.03

+0.15

+0.41

+0.66

+0.91

55%

-0.27

-0.13

+0.01

+0.14

+0.28

+0.56

+0.83

+1.11

60%

-0.20

-0.05

+0.10

+0.26

+0.40

+0.70

+1.01

+1.30

65%

-0.12

+0.04

+0.21

+0.37

+0.53

+0.86

+1.18

+1.51

70%

-0.05

+0.13

+0.30

+0.48

+0.65

+1.00

+1.35

+1.70

Strong edge (>+0.4R)Slight edgeSlight lossStrong loss

Break-even Win Rate for given R:R

1R → 54.8%1.5R → 43.8%2R → 36.5%3R → 27.4%

Break-even R:R for given Win Rate

40% WR → 1.74R50% WR → 1.19R60% WR → 0.83R

Cost drag

Spread 1.2 pips + commission $3.5/side ≈ 1.90 pips per round trip ($19.00 at 1.00 lots). Against a 20-pip stop that is 0.095R lost on every trade, already subtracted above — a 1R setup needs 54.8% wins to break even, not 50%. Tighter stops make costs a bigger share of R.

EV = W × (R − c) − (1 − W) × (1 + c), where c = round-trip cost ÷ stop distance. A positive EV means the strategy is profitable in expectation. Focus on the top-right (high WR + high R) green region — but remember high WR often means smaller R:R in practice.

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Break-Even Analyzer Formula

Break-Even Win % = 1 ÷ (1 + R:R Ratio) × 100

Example: 1:2 R:R → 1 ÷ (1 + 2) = 33.3% minimum win rate needed

Break-Even Analyzer FAQ

How do you calculate break-even win rate?

Break-even = 1 / (1 + R:R ratio). With costs factored in, the effective R:R is reduced, requiring a higher win rate.

How do commissions and spreads affect break-even?

Commissions and spreads reduce your effective reward and increase your effective risk on every trade. This raises the break-even win rate, sometimes significantly for scalpers taking small targets.

What win rate do most profitable traders achieve?

Most consistently profitable traders have win rates between 40-60%. A lower win rate can still be profitable with a high risk-reward ratio — what matters is the combination of both.

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Calculator results are estimates only — not financial advice. Trading involves significant risk of loss. Full risk disclosure.