Calculate the minimum win rate required to break even at different risk-reward ratios, accounting for spread and commission costs.
Break-Even Win % = 1 ÷ (1 + R:R Ratio) × 100
Example: 1:2 R:R → 1 ÷ (1 + 2) = 33.3% minimum win rate needed
Break-even = 1 / (1 + R:R ratio). With costs factored in, the effective R:R is reduced, requiring a higher win rate.
Commissions and spreads reduce your effective reward and increase your effective risk on every trade. This raises the break-even win rate, sometimes significantly for scalpers taking small targets.
Most consistently profitable traders have win rates between 40-60%. A lower win rate can still be profitable with a high risk-reward ratio — what matters is the combination of both.
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Calculator results are estimates only — not financial advice. Trading involves significant risk of loss. Full risk disclosure.
EV Heat Map — Expected Value per trade (in R-multiples)
Green = profitable · Red = losingBreak-even Win Rate for given R:R
Break-even R:R for given Win Rate
Cost Drag
At your spread (1.2 pips) + commission ($3.5/lot), each trade costs ~$19.00 USD round-trip (1.00 lots). This is equivalent to trading with a slightly lower effective R:R — factor this into your target.
EV = Win Rate × R:R − (1 − Win Rate). A positive EV means the strategy is profitable in expectation. Focus on the top-right (high WR + high R) green region — but remember high WR often means smaller R:R in practice.